By Thepparith Senamngern
Deputy Party Head, Thai Sang Thai Party
Political Scientist in International Relations and Regionalism
The recent announcement by the United States government to impose a 37% tariff on Thai exports has sent shockwaves through Thailand’s business community, especially our small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), farmers, and labor-dependent industries. While I commend the government’s decision to send a high-level delegation to Washington D.C. led by the Finance Minister, I must express deep concern that this response—however well-intentioned—is reactive, not strategic.
We are arriving at the negotiation table too late.
A Wake-Up Call for Thailand’s Foreign Economic Strategy
Thailand has long prided itself on being a reliable trading partner, especially with the United States—one of our oldest allies and third-largest export market. In 2023, Thailand exported nearly $55 billion worth of goods to the U.S., representing over 16% of our total exports. The livelihoods of millions depend on these trade flows.
This is why the Trump administration’s proposed tariff—targeting Thai goods on grounds of trade imbalances and transshipment concerns—is not just an economic issue. It is a diplomatic crisis, and one that exposes Thailand’s lack of preparedness in a rapidly shifting global order.
The signs were there. Since 2017, the U.S. has pursued a more protectionist and transactional foreign policy under the “America First” doctrine. Countries such as Vietnam, South Korea, and even Mexico anticipated this shift, engaging in early dialogue and pre-emptive trade diplomacy to protect their national interests. Unfortunately, Thailand did not.
Diplomacy Must Be Proactive, Not Reactive
In modern international relations, diplomacy is not merely about responding to crises—it is about anticipating them. Effective governments establish dedicated early warning systems and trade risk units that monitor shifts in foreign policy, economic sentiment, and geopolitical developments.
In this case, the moment red flags appeared—whether in USTR reports, tariff reviews, or the politicization of transshipment loopholes—Thailand should have mobilized a full-spectrum diplomatic response. That means:
- Engaging U.S. business and trade lobbies;
- Coordinating with ASEAN partners to present a united front;
- Leveraging our embassies and trade offices to build political alliances within Congress and U.S. state departments;
- Utilizing multilateral platforms like APEC, WTO, and ASEAN-U.S. summits to voice our concerns.
The fact that these actions are only being undertaken now—after the policy has been announced—weakens our negotiating position and endangers critical economic sectors.
SMEs and Farmers Are the Frontline Casualties
Let us be clear: this is not a crisis that affects only major corporations. Thai SMEs, which account for over 70% of total employment and more than a third of our GDP, will suffer immensely from these tariffs.
Many of these businesses operate on thin margins. For exporters of rubber gloves, seafood, auto parts, and processed agricultural products, a sudden 37% tariff could mean closure. The same is true for farmers and rural entrepreneurs who depend on export-linked value chains to survive.
This is not abstract policy—it is a direct hit to the grassroots economy.
What Thailand Must Do Now
While the current government’s effort to increase Thai imports from the U.S. as a gesture of goodwill is a step in the right direction, it is not enough. We need a comprehensive, long-term diplomatic and trade strategy that reflects Thailand’s role not just as a supplier of goods, but as a strategic economic and regional partner.
I propose the following:
- Establish a Trade Risk Monitoring & Early Response Unit under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with private sector integration, to provide foresight and alerts on trade policy changes.
- Build a permanent Thai Business Council in Washington D.C. to act as a lobbying force for Thai interests, composed of diaspora leaders, business stakeholders, and policy experts.
- Accelerate FTA negotiations with key partners such as the EU, India, and the Middle East to reduce over-reliance on the U.S. market.
- Pursue multilateral coalition diplomacy with ASEAN and Global South partners to counter unilateral trade actions and ensure fairness through WTO mechanisms.
- Use public diplomacy tools—from opinion editorials in international media to academic and business forums—to reshape Thailand’s global narrative as a fair, compliant, and trusted partner.
The Future Cannot Be Managed with Yesterday’s Playbook
Thailand must not be caught off guard again. The global economy is increasingly shaped by political decisions, security alliances, and shifting power dynamics. Trade is no longer just about economics—it’s about leverage, legitimacy, and long-term trust.
This moment demands that we modernize our foreign policy machinery, empower our diplomats with better tools and foresight, and stop relying on outdated modes of negotiation that no longer serve our interests in a multipolar world.
It is time for Thailand to step forward—not as a passive player, but as a strategic actor capable of shaping the terms of its engagement with the world.
